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Wärtsilä, a global leader in high precision modelling of power systems, in a recent study developed a mathematical model of the Integrated power system of Ukraine using PLEXOS® software – the specialized tool used for planning and optimization of power systems. Two scenarios for the development of the grid for the next 30 years have been analyzed.
The results of modelling the development of the Ukrainian power system from today to 2050 were presented in Kyiv on February 26, 2020, at a specially organized event " Energy Transition in Ukraine: What is the Optimal Path to Carbon-Neutral Power System?"
The first, so-called optimal, scenario was based on the assumption that changes would definitely occur in the system due to replacement of old facilities by the new and efficient ones. The mathematical optimizer in the model has selected the optimal dispatch of the system for each 2 hours over a 30-year planning horizon to achieve the lowest cost of electricity.
The result of the calculations has demonstrated that the optimal energy system will move towards increase of the RES share so that they reach 88% in the energy balance in 2050.
The second, carbon-free, scenario defined the path with cost optimization in a similar way, but with a forced reduction of CO2 emissions to zero at the 2050 horizon.
The main conclusion of the study is that despite the different goals, both scenarios offer similar development paths, namely investment in renewables, flexible capacities and energy storage. The carbon-free scenario requires addition amount of renewable capacity and Power to Gas conversion systems.
The price to close the gap from a 88% to a 100% renewable system is the cost of additional 17 GW of RES and 11 GW of Power-to-Gas.
None of the scenarios is suggesting to build traditional thermal generation.
“The energy transition has become a trend over the last two years. Our company was probably the first to formally integrate a vision of the transition to a renewable power system of the future into its mission. Today, we believe that energy transition in Ukraine is possible by 2050. Of course, achieving the goal has its price. But the good news is that by simply pushing for economic viability we will take the optimal power system to 88% renewables in 2050,” says Jussi Heikkinen, Director, Growth and Development Americas, Wärtsilä Energy.
“We hope that precise modelling of the power system development by 2050 should clarify the vision of the future and would help finding well-grounded solutions right today, and support Ukraine in moving towards clean energy together with Europe and the whole world,” says Igor Petryk, Market Development Director, East Europe, Wärtsilä Energy.
Ukrainian Wind Energy Association was an information partner of this event.
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